OAG says that capacity remains steady as November remains upbeat for now, with a slight reduction in December, counter to the trend of previous years
A new report by airline ticketing consultancy firm OAG says that as the global carriers move towards their winter schedule, the total airline capacity continues to fluctuate significantly from the highs registered just a couple of months ago.
OAG says that though the weekly capacity had crossed the key benchmark of 100 million seats in August to peak at 102.5 million seats in mid-August, it has continued to slide downwards since and airline capacity this week is sitting at 93.6m, a reduction of 0.5 pc from last week and a more significant fall of 9 pc from the peak level.
However, OAG goes on to add that seasonal fluctuation is the norm at this time of year and back in 2019 the same week saw 10 pc fewer seats than the August peak, so arguably, the position is a little better here now than 2019. It goes on to add that North America is now barely 2 pc behind the 2019 peaks, while Western Europe is barely 0.9 pc off.
After having suffered for long, the North-East Asian capacity has grown 2.1 pc in the week, though it is still almost 33 pc off the 2019 level and South-East Asia is in similar position.
Capacity steady in the next quarter
Looking forward, OAG says that capacity remains steady as November remains upbeat for now, with a slight reduction in December, counter to the trend of previous years. January 2023, on the other hand looks optimistic still, with capacity sitting around 2019 levels.
It says that there is more stability now in seat capacity across the largest countries. China has seen the largest increase, of 2.9 pc this week, a fairly small increase in the context of recent changes, equivalent to 320,000 more seats. Capacity in China is now 28.8 pc behind the same week in 2019, making China second only to Indonesia in this group in terms of recovery against 2019. The United States has seen capacity fall week-on-week, with 209,000 seats removed as carriers prepare for the winter season. Most European markets are also seeing capacity trimmed this week, despite this being a week where many European countries have half-term school holidays.
The market evolution is also reflected in the airline capacities, says OAG, adding that European carriers paring back, readying themselves for the winter ahead, and a similar picture across the Atlantic where American, Delta and United are all cutting week-on-week. Southwest and Spirit are holding their nerve, hoping undoubtedly that the tightening of belts will mean more opportunity for them and JetBlue have in fact increased capacity week over week, but the additional 5,400 seats this week are primarily on international routes to the UK and Caribbean.
In China, there’s also a mixed story. China Eastern and China Southern are cutting back, with the bulk of the reductions coming from China Southern who are down 192,000 seats this week, whilst Air China is adding capacity, with an additional 42,000 seats. Of the Chinese majors, China Eastern is most recovered with seats just 23.2 pc behind the same week in 2019. China Southern is furthest behind, with seats 44.9 pc below 2019.
Low cost carriers have done well in the post-pandemic recovery phase as three leading budget airlines, Wizz Air, Spirit and JetBlue, have replaced Air France, Japan Airlines and British Airways from Top 20 airlines of the world. OAG says that the budget carriers are not temporary phenonmenon as two of them, Wizz Air and Spirit in particular have really demonstrated their resilience with both carriers having exceeded their 2019 position by a considerable distance – Wizz Air is now nearly 50 pc bigger in capacity terms this week and Spirit nearly 30 pc bigger. With over 2 million seats, Indian budget carrier, IndiGo features at the 7th spot in the Top 20 airlines.
