Analysis of the global airline capacity for the current week by aviation data consultancy firm OAG shows that despite the end of summer approaching rapidly, there is not much impact on air travel so far and September is also looking strong.

Aviation data aggregator and consultancy firm OAG says that another week of more than 102 million scheduled seats made the current week the eighth consecutive week above the 100 million mark and with September still holding above that point global capacity appears to remain strong through to the end of the summer holiday season.

However, the consultancy stays away from forecasting what may await the global aviation in the fall and winter this year, saying that there appeared to be growing concern about the last quarter of the year as a combination of economic news and limited visibility around corporate demand was finally beginning to get the attention it deserved. ‘‘Whilst airline CEOs have a fine line to tread in being confident in future performance and realistic, those that are can smell the coffee (or indeed JetA1) and are finally getting a bit more cautious about the winter season. They may have reason too, but let’s focus on what remains of the summer!’’ says OAG.

In terms of forward forecast, OAG says as November is the first month of the winter season there is always a noticeable reduction in capacity as airlines take a chance to catch up on heavy maintenance checks for their aircraft. This year the current reduction in capacity between October and November is around 16 pc, while in 2019 it was half of that, at 8 pc. With airlines and airports still struggling with crews, the fall may be long-term or perhaps, as OAG suggests, airline network planners may have yet to add back the capacities that were cut during the pandemic. ‘‘Sensible airlines are likely to be cautious of what November brings and this could be one of the first indications of that caution,’’ says OAG.

Western Europe tops tables, again

OAG says that Western Europe has consolidated its position in first place with a 3 pc increase in airline capacity this week and at 24.5 million is now less than 8 pc below the 2019 level. Western Europe has also increased the gap with the next two regions in the global list, as both North America and North East Asia have seen cutback in capacities this week. China led North East Asia downwards with a cut of 888,588 seats week-on-week. But China may be coming back stronger later as in the last three weeks the number of scheduled international flights have increased by 6 pc with new routes such as Manchester – Beijing, Hangzhou – Lisbon and Bangkok (Don Muang) – Nanjing being operated with once weekly frequency, says OAG. The next few weeks is traditionally busy as Chinese students travel to overseas locations to finish their studies, so it expects to see a few more routes added in the coming weeks.

In terms of markets, the United States is still the largest country market and that the top 20 countries remain unchanged week-on-week. The flight cancellation rates by some major airlines has seen a drop, says OAG. In nearly every country the rate of flight cancellations appears to be coming down with many markets now at, or below, less than 1 pc of flights being cancelled last week. The exceptions are Indonesia, Switzerland and the United Kingdom, all of which saw higher cancellation rates last week. Within countries, too, some airports suffer more than others as London City Airport had a 3.9 pc cancellation rate and Houston Intercontinental “enjoyed” a 2.8 pc cancellation rate last week, says OAG.