Barely four weeks before the start of the high-season, due to the Coronavirus pandemic, the outlook for Indian outbound travel market has suffered dramatically and uncertainty is likely to continue well into the season.

After registering robust growth in 2019, when the traffic of outbound travellers from India grew at a double-digit rate, Indian tourism professionals, as well as key destinations that rely on Indian visitors, were banking on yet another healthy performance in the current year.

Almost right up to the last week of February, things seemed to be going well for the industry as bookings as well as enquiries for the season that normally kicks off in early April and continues through to September, were very robust.

Right up to early February, the travel industry seemed to be in the pink of health. Even though media, global and Indian, had begun to talk of the new virus that had emerged in China and which was believed to be a very dangerous and highly contagious one, for most travel professionals as well as tourists, Coronavirus, seemed to be a remote phenomenon in a part of China that is hardly known to Indian travellers and hence with limited potential to damage the travel industry.

However, in mid-February, when the virus spread to Europe, notably Italy, all of a sudden Indian travellers seemed to begin panicking. Tour operators were flooded with telephone calls and emails inquiring about the risks of Coronavirus in the countries that the travellers were planning to visit, while some others began to check the conditions for refunds, in case they cancelled the trip due to the virus. ‘‘Since last one week, we have noticed a significant slowdown in Europe, Asia and USA sectors. Currently, we have bookings for South Africa and domestic sectors,’’ Amit Jain, CEO of GEM Tours, a Mumbai-based travel company that does a fair amount of business with Europe each year tells India Outbound. He also says that there has been a severe impact on the tours covering South Korea and Japan, besides China.

Jain goes on to add that as many of the tours popular with Indian travellers involve multi-country visits, the severity of the outbreak in Italy has put the entire circuit in jeopardy, even if Italy accounted for less than 20 pc of the total time spent on the itinerary. However, the travellers are not yet moving in large numbers towards cancellation. ‘‘Most of the people have adopted a wait and watch attitude for now. They are hoping that indeed the situation will improve and by the time they are ready to board the flight to Europe, in April or May, the outbreak would be over and Coronavirus would be but a bad memory,’’ Shibani Phadkar, business head – Europe & Australia of Red Apple, a large Malaysian DMC firm that has a big presence in India as well tells India Outbound.

On the one hand, the wait and watch attitude, by people who have already booked their vacation, is saving the tour operators as they don’t have to process refunds on bookings cancelled. However, on the other hand, the same wait and watch attitude, adopted by persons yet to make their bookings for vacations this year, has become a very big problem for the travel industry. ‘‘Nowadays, those who have not yet made their bookings, when they call, their first question is whether a particular destination is safe to travel to or the one least impacted by the viral outbreak,’’ says Jain of GEM Tours.

‘‘Despite our answers and assurances that we provide maximum possible protection and hygiene standards, they are simply not booking unless the situation improves. As a result, our bookings for the first week of March this year are barely a fourth of the bookings we made in the corresponding period last year,’’ he says.

Meanwhile, many agents have begun taking proactive measures to counter the threat of Coronavirus. These include not only informing and keeping the customers aware of the latest developments, but also protecting their own staff.

‘‘In response to the outbreak, SOTC Travel has instituted a safety protocol for our tour managers, coaches and on-ground operations relating to travel to and through these areas to help ensure the health and safety of our customers. We are introducing options we believe will give customers time and flexibility in their travel decisions. In response to the uncertainty felt among travellers over the effects of the spread of Coronavirus, we have rolled out a special scheme under which customers are assured flexibility on their departure dates and only visa charges would be billed in case of cancellations arising only due to Coronavirus,’’ Daniel D’Souza, president & country head, Leisure, SOTC Travel, one of the largest inbound and outbound travel companies of India, tells India Outbound.

‘‘We also provide customers cover under our DIGIT Insurance for the full sum insured for Europe, USA, Africa & Australia and New Zealand. With the safety, security and peace-of-mind of our customers being the topmost priority, our genuine intent is to give our customers a wonderful holiday,” D’Souza goes on to say.

One impact of the Coronavirus that some agents have already begun to see is that an increasing number of persons are opting for a domestic break until the situation overseas becomes clearer. ‘‘With Prime Minister Modi encouraging citizens to travel across the country, coupled with the growing trend of Indian consumers choosing multiple micro-cations/bite-size breaks against merely one long annual vacation, we had already seen signs of keen interest in holidaying within the country. And given consumer sentiments in the current situation, the spotlight seems to have clearly shifted to India. We are delighted with the encouraging uptake of over 15 pc in demand for domestic tourism. Destinations witnessing high demand for Summer 2020 include Andamans, Goa, Himachal Pradesh, Kashmir, Kerala and the North East; and this is coupled with destinations in the Indian subcontinent such as Bhutan, Sri Lanka, Myanmar, Nepal too,’’ Rajeev Kale, president & country head – Holidays, MICE, Visa, Thomas Cook (India), tells India Outbound.

Meanwhile, in a clear indication that the things would get worse before they become better, the virus is spreading rapidly across Europe, which itself could enter a voluntary lockdown as has happened in northern Italy and is increasingly the case with large chunks of France. In the meanwhile, several countries have announced the suspension of all incoming and outgoing flights from those countries that they deem to be vulnerable to Coronavirus. For instance, Qatar and Kuwait have suspended all flights to and from India and a few other nations. In India itself, the number of cases continues to rise, albeit slowly, having reached around 40 at the end of the first week of March, when this magazine went to print.

Despite the flood of bad news, some experts believe that there are enough momentum and strength in the Indian market to make up for the lost time if the virus does manage to eat up a big chunk of the summer vacation, which accounts for over 60 pc of the total annual outbound departures from India. ‘‘There are millions of Indians who have been bitten by the travel bug and who are now well off enough to be able to afford at least one overseas break every year, even if it is more expensive or it comes after the summer break is over. India is rapidly becoming a year-round source market for several countries and thus several overseas players are indeed certain that even if the peak season of the summer becomes a victim of Coronavirus, Indian tourists would flock their destinations as soon as the scare dies down,’’ says the official of a Mumbai-based destination management company.