According to IATA, SAF accounted for 3 pc of all renewable fuels produced with 97 pc of renewable fuel production going to other sectors
Global air transport association, International Air Transport Association (IATA), has forecast that production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel across the world will more than triple to 1.875 billion litres in 2024.
In a press statement, IATA says that it estimates SAF production volumes are set to be more than 600 million litres or 500,000 tonnes in 2023. This is double the 300 million litres produced in 2022.
According to IATA, SAF accounted for 3 pc of all renewable fuels produced with 97 pc of renewable fuel production going to other sectors. In 2024, SAF production, that will be about 1.875 billion litres, will account for 0.53 pc of aviation’s fuel need and 6 pc of renewable fuel capacity.
Willie Walsh
“The doubling of SAF production in 2023 was encouraging as is the expected tripling of production expected in 2024. But even with that impressive growth, SAF as a portion of all renewable fuel production will only grow from 3 pc this year to 6 pc in 2024. This allocation limits SAF supply and keeps prices high. Aviation needs between 25 pc and 30 pc of renewable fuel production capacity for SAF. At those levels aviation will be on the trajectory needed to reach NetZero carbon emissions by 2050. Until such levels are reached, we will continue missing huge opportunities to advance aviation’s decarbonisation. It is government policy that will make the difference. Governments must prioritize policies to incentivise the scaling-up of SAF production and to diversify feedstocks with those available locally,” says Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.
IATA says the small percentage of SAF output as a proportion of overall renewable fuel is primarily due to the new capacity coming online in 2023 being allocated to other renewable fuels.
The Third Conference on Aviation Alternative Fuels (CAAF/3) hosted by the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) agreed a global framework to promote SAF production in all geographies for fuels used in international aviation to be 5 pc less carbon intensive by 2030. To reach this level, about 17.5 billion litres or 14 million tonnes of SAF need to be produced.
“Governments want aviation to be NetZero by 2050. Having set an interim target in the CAAF process they now need to deliver policy measures that can achieve the needed exponential increase in SAF production,” adds Walsh.
According to IATA, every drop of SAF produced has been bought and used. In fact, SAF added USD 756 million to a record high fuel bill in 2023. At least 43 airlines have already committed to use some 16.25 billion litres or 13 million tonnes of SAF in 2030.
“Unlocking supply to meet demand is the challenge that needs to be solved. Projections are for over 78 billion litres or 63 million tonnes of renewable fuels to be produced in 2029. Governments must set a policy framework that incentivises renewable fuel producers to allocate 25-30 pc of their output to SAF to meet the CAAF/3 ambition, existing regional and national policies as well as airline commitments,” says IATA.
Effective production incentives for SAF, as per IATA, should support accelerating investments in SAF by traditional oil companies and ensuring renewable fuel production incentives encourage sufficient SAF quantities.
IATA adds it is equally important for stakeholders to focus on regional diversification of feedstock and SAF production while also identifying and prioritising high potential production projects for investment support and delivering a global SAF accounting framework.
Approximately 85 pc of SAF facilities coming on line over the next five years will use Hydrotreatment (HEFA) production technology, which relies on inedible animal fats, used cooking oil and industrial grease as feedstock. Limited quantities of these necessitate policies to diversify SAF production by increasing production through pathways already certified, in particular the Alcohol-to-Jet (AtJ) and Fischer-Tropsch (FT) which use bio/agricultural wastes and residue.
The statement adds that policies must also promote investments in, and the fast-tracking of certification for, new SAF production pathways currently in the developmental phase. More potential feedstocks to leverage all SAF technologies must also be identified for diversification.
A recent IATA survey revealed significant public support is needed for SAF. Some 86 pc of travellers agreed that governments should provide production incentives for airlines to be able to access SAF. In addition, 86 pc agreed that it should be a priority for oil companies to supply SAF to airlines.
