With sizeable population bases and rapid rises in incomes, China, the United States and India are forecast by Airports Council International to dominate as top three source markets in terms of passenger traffic till 2052.

The United States, China and India were the top three markets in 2023, respectively, by total passenger traffic. Spain and the United Kingdom took up the fourth and fifth spots, respectively, while Japan, Turkey, Brazil, Italy and Germany formed the top 10.

The Canada-based Airports Council International (ACI) World has released its annual World Airport Traffic Forecasts (WATF) 2023-2052 dataset, which shows the top 20 markets for air travel demand, among other key air traffic findings.

According to the report, global passenger traffic is predicted to overtake the 2019 level for the first time since the pandemic by the end of 2024, with 9.7 billion passengers expected worldwide. It says that global passenger traffic is projected to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.3 pc from 2023 to 2042 and 3.6 pc from 2042 to 2052.

ACI says that China is set to overtake the US as the top market in terms of passenger traffic by 2042 and remain there till 2052 while India retains its third rank.

It says that global passenger numbers are forecast to approximately double from 2024 to 2042 and to be 2.5 times higher in 2052. By end of 2024, international passenger traffic is forecast to approach the 4 billion mark, with domestic passenger traffic reaching 5.7 billion. Looking ahead to 2042, international passenger traffic is expected to reach 8.7 billion and domestic passenger traffic to attain 10.6 billion.

“The projections indicate that global passenger traffic is set to reach 9.7 billion by the end of 2024, surpassing pre-pandemic levels, and suggest a doubling by 2042 and a 2.5-fold increase by 2052. In the long-term, the global passenger market dynamic is expected to transition from advanced economies towards emerging and developing ones as they experience significant urbanisation and population increases, often combined with rapid economic growth, favourably impacting their disposable income and willingness to travel. Investing responsibly in current and new infrastructure remains key to ensuring that we can sustainably meet capacity growth to maximise the social and economic benefits of aviation,” says ACI World Director General Luis Felipe de Oliveira.

ACI says that the resource covers data sourced from 141 countries, introducing 29 new countries, to provide granular forecasts for passengers, air cargo volumes and aircraft movements.

It adds that in the long-term, the global passenger market dynamic is expected to shift, transitioning from advanced economies towards emerging and developing economies.

ACI says that between 2023 and 2042, advanced economies are expected to have a CAGR of 3.2 pc for total passenger traffic, whereas emerging and developing economies are expected to have a more robust CAGR of 5.4 pc. Sizeable population bases and rapid rises in incomes in emerging markets are the main economic engines driving air transportation demand.