With the end of zero-Covid policy in China, travel, both domestic and international, is set to boom, especially with the upcoming Lunar New Year, the biggest holiday period in the country. A report by ForwardKeys says that while outbound travel from China has surged for the New Year, it will peak in summer.

China’s decision to ditch its zero-Covid policy has triggered a surge in flight bookings, according to the latest data from ForwardKeys. And it is the intra-regional neighbours in Asia who will reap the benefits the most.

According to a press statement, ForwardKeys China Market Analyst, Nan Dai, shared the latest figures in a joint webinar with Dragon Trail International and the consumer sentiment data aligned with the booking trends.

“More than 60 pc of survey respondents said they wanted to travel outside of mainland China in 2023. This group expressed high expectations about the freedom of cross-border travel this year. Survey respondents said they were excited to relax, as well as to experience the scenery, food, culture, and shopping overseas,” says the Chinese Traveller Sentiment Report by Dragon Trail International.

ForwardKeys adds that immediately upon China’s official announcement about the ease of Covid-19 controls, there was a surge in bookings for domestic flights, Sanya became the hottest destination with the fastest recovery.

Top China outbound destinations are in Southeast Asia

“Forward bookings for Chinese New Year are currently 47 pc behind the pre-pandemic levels but already 30 pc ahead of last year,” says ForwardKeys’ Nan Dai optimistically.

The pent-up demand remains high and in terms of outbound travel, Southeast Asian destinations are most likely to first benefit from the return of Chinese tourists. “All these destinations have relaxed rules for Chinese travellers. Arrivals from China will not be required to provide test results for Covid-19. Visa waiver to Indonesia, visa-on-arrival to Thailand, Cambodia, and UAE, all make it even easier to travel,” adds Dai.

However, the lack of flight capacity and high fares could be the bottleneck for China’s outbound travel recovery in Q1. “Current scheduled international flight capacity in Q1 is only at 21 pc of 2019’s level; and owing to approval requirements for traffic rights and airport slots, it will be difficult for airlines to gear back up very quickly. We can expect a more significant increase when airlines schedule for the next summer season starting from the 26th of March,” shares Nan Dai.

“Our survey results show that while recovery will start gradually in the first six months of 2023, it’s clear that outbound travel will start to pick up in the second half of the year. As many as 42 pc said they would travel outbound in July and August, with 32 pc planning an autumn Golden Week getaway outside mainland China,” adds Dragon Trail Market Research Analyst, Yelinuer Kadeerbieke.

The outbound China market is vital in the travel food chain so the return of the sleeping dragon in time for the Lunar New Year with promises for greater growth over the summer period will be a game changer for the travel sector in 2023.