OAG says that for many years Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways have been considered as two of the most successful airlines in Africa
African aviation has encountered many challenges, as evidenced by the numerous airline mergers, establishments, failures and political meddling during the past 20 years. Some airline CEOs hail success in Africa to be maintaining continuous operations from one year to the next, with these challenges frequently combining geo-political ambition with the harsh realities of commerce.
In the wake of these numerous obstacles, two countries in East Africa, namely Ethiopia and Kenya, have had a significant market share and so do their two flag carriers, Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways respectively.
In a press statement, the aviation market analyst OAG says that for many years Ethiopian Airlines and Kenya Airways have been considered as two of the most successful airlines in Africa, both growing, full members of global alliances with clear opportunities for future growth through their respective hubs.
OAG says that since 2012 capacity at Ethiopian Airlines has stretched significantly ahead of Kenya Airways
However, the growth story of Ethiopian Airlines has been phenomenal, says OAG adding that while Ethiopian Airlines was slightly bigger than Kenya Airways in the year 2000, with only about 300,000 seats separating the two, this difference has now risen multifold and in 2024, the seat capacity of Ethiopian Airlines stands at 27.7 million, leaving Kenya Airways far behind at barely 6.3 million seats, a gap of 21.4 million seats, making Ethiopian almost 4.5 times as big as its rival.
OAG says that since 2012 capacity at Ethiopian Airlines has stretched significantly ahead of Kenya Airways. With an average annual growth rate (AAGR) of 12.8 pc, which is twice as high as Kenya Airways’ 5.8 pc, Ethiopian has surpassed its direct competitor in terms of capacity, leaving it lagging behind on almost all metrics.
The study says that for both airlines at least 60 pc of their scheduled capacity remains within the East African region, but beyond that network similarity, Ethiopian has a much larger share of its capacity allocated to medium/long-haul markets such as Central Africa and Europe both of which account for 10 pc of capacity production.
For Kenya Airways, Southern and Central Africa are the two largest regional markets contributing to a near 90 pc reliance on purely African markets, when compared to Ethiopian Airlines, which has a 76 pc reliance on the same market.
OAG adds that even in terms of fleet capacity, Ethiopian Airlines currently operates 128 aircraft with orders for approximately 70 aircraft including both A350s and B737-800s expected in the next few years.
By means of comparison, Kenya Airways’ number of active aircraft now stands at 32, with no confirmed orders in place. Given the current global shortage of available aircraft and completely full manufacturer order books, this suggests that any further growth is going to be very hard to achieve.
Different futures for East Africa’s two major airlines
OAG says that perhaps a combination of over expansion and a misguided network project between 2012 to 2016 resulted in the change of fortunes for Kenya Airways and certainly political interference played a role.
The statement adds that for Ethiopian Airlines, a very clear long-term strategy that has been unchanged for over 20 years with a steady management team and minimal government interference has created a leading airline.
Ethiopian Airlines has minority and in some cases majority shares and its engineering support facilities in several other regional airlines in Africa that allow it to extend its influence into other markets.
OAG adds that for Kenya Airways to break out from its current market position will require investment and very careful long-term planning and this may lead to an uncertain future for the carrier.
