Mabrian says that the global travel demand to the US has experienced declines in key markets while others remain cautious
The demand for travel to the United States in the top 10 source markets has become highly volatile due to the recent policies and decisions of the United States administration, says a report by Mabrian, a global travel intelligence platform.
In a press statement, Mabrian says that the global travel demand to the US has experienced declines in key markets while others remain cautious as they await further developments.
Mabrian says that analysis of millions of flight searches made between January and March 2025 from 10 key source markets for the United States, notably the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, India, Japan, South Korea and China for travel to the US with travel dates extending through September 2025, highlights the instability of international demand to this destination.
The statement adds that overall EU27 travel intent to the United States is down 0.4 percentage points year-over-year, with the Share of Searches Index settling at 5.4 pc by late March. This percentage implies that the United States concentrates 5.4 pc of the total flight searches launched by the EU27 countries during the period analysed. In contrast, British demand which was initially impacted, has begun to recover briefly surpassing last year’s levels in mid-March making the United Kingdom the only European market analysed to show clear signs of resilience.
“This data underlines the sensitivity of European markets to geopolitical developments in other continents. While travel demand is always capable of being resilient, sudden policy shifts or added difficulties to visit the country project a less-friendly image of the United States as a destination, which might influence travel intent in the short and medium term,” Carlos Cendra, Partner and Marketing and Communications Director, Mabrian.
The research also identifies three distinct regional scenarios for travel intent from the Americas and Asia. Japan and Brazil show a declining trend in inspirational demand. Brazilian travellers’ intent to visit the United States sits at 8 pc, having dropped an average of 1.2 percentage points compared to 2024. Japanese market to travel to the United States in the next six months, currently at 4.1 pc, remains below last year’s figures, showing no signs of recovery for the coming week.
“Data on the weekly evolution of inspirational demand to the US for the next six months reflects the weakened consumer confidence from travellers in these top source markets when considering the United States as a travel destination over the next six months. This is creating two key effects, shorter planning and booking cycles, favouring last-minute reservations and a wait-and-see approach that discourages bookings made well in advance,” says Cendra.
According to the analysis, Share of Searches Index in Canada has been quite stable since January 2025 at 22.3 pc, showing a similar inspirational demand trend to last year’s, but travel intent is not converting to actual bookings as in 2024, as gross passengers booked declined by 15.7 pc in February and 14.5 pc in March.
Meanwhile, Mexico and India also show a positive momentum in terms of inspirational demand, with Mexico’s Share of Searches Index the overall trend remains positive at 32.1 pc, whereas India surpassed 2024 travel intent levels by late March, even after early 2025 declines, suggesting rising interest.
Other top Asian source markets for the United States, such as China and South Korea, have shown a surge in inspirational demand rising by an average of +1.5 and +1.4 percentage points per week, respectively, says the analysis.
“Travel intent and booking trends in the period following the announcement of tariffs clearly reflect heightened volatility and uncertainty. While March showed signs of recovery compared to February, the outlook remains highly unpredictable, as it is closely linked to shifting international policies and how travellers perceive global stability,” says Mirko Lalli, CEO, the Data Appeal Company.
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