Predicted international visitor numbers in 2023 exceed that of pre-pandemic 2019 by 3.3 pc under the mild scenario, but still nearly 25 pc short of it under the medium scenario, and some 43 pc behind it under the severe scenario, say reports by PATA.

Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has released updated forecasts for 39 Asia Pacific destinations, indicating a robust growth momentum in aggregate international visitor arrivals (IVAs) under each of three scenarios in 2023, with strong annual growth consistent to the end of 2025.

According to the statement, this series of reports by Visa and information and analysis from Euromonitor International, expands on the current forecasts by going in-depth on the shifting dynamics of travel and tourism to and within the Asia Pacific region at the single destination level, making it easier to develop effective strategies over the following three years.

It adds that predicted numbers for foreign arrivals in 2023 range from 705 million under the mild scenario to 516 million under the medium scenario to almost 390 million under the severe scenario, which equates to visitor numbers in 2023 exceeding those of pre-pandemic 2019 by 3.3 pc under the mild scenario but falling short of those figures by nearly 25 pc under the medium scenario and 43 pc behind them under the severe scenario.

Under the mild scenario, the statement says, the benchmark level of IVAs for 2019 will be exceeded even more by the end of 2024, and under the medium scenario, it will be exceeded by 6.7 pc, with both positions strengthening to 2025. However, under the severe scenario, IVAs are still expected to be about 10 pc below the level of 2019.

PATA covers each of the 39 destinations in considerably greater detail in this recently released series of the Asia Pacific Destination Forecasts 2023-2025, with an emphasis on source markets and air capacity adjustments in each case. These most recent projections indicate that very significant yearly growth rates are predicted in 2023 under each of the three scenarios, but not passing the 2019 volumes under the mild and medium scenarios until 2024. Of course, mainland China is one source market of great significance, the statement adds.

“While these forecasts are extremely encouraging, hurdles still remain, and the travel and tourism sector will require ongoing vigilance and operational flexibility as these issues present themselves over the coming years. While the covid-19 outbreak is no longer at the global pandemic stage for example, it has not disappeared entirely, and we must come to grips with living with it for some time yet,” says Peter Semone, Chair of the Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA).

Despite very significant annual gains, by the end of 2025, it is still anticipated that mainland Chinese visits to Asia Pacific locations will trail the peak of 2019 by about 6 pc, according to PATA.

“In addition, the conflict in Ukraine, a softening global economic outlook with rising inflation and the increased costs of international travel will all have to be dealt with in ways that satisfy the increasingly diverse demands of the traveller of both today and tomorrow,” Semone adds.

“PATA’s forecasts offer the travel industry with a much-needed and renewed sense of optimism after almost three years of border closures. Nonetheless, many headwinds lie ahead as traveller habits and preferences have changed substantially in a post-pandemic and hyper-digitalised world. The travel industry needs to understand the unique needs of travellers, many who are digital natives, in order to offer the flexible, novel and personalised travel experiences that they have come to expect,” says David Fowler, Head of Cross-border & Sales Excellence, Asia Pacific, Visa.

“Building data capabilities will continue to be a key area of investment for the travel ecosystem as it navigates the shifts in travel patterns through data insights, and in turn responds with data-backed customer engagement strategies. Visa has recently set up a new Centre of Excellence for travel in Asia Pacific dedicated to help clients and partners use data insights to maximise opportunities in the travel space. It is now more critical than ever that the travel industry is well-informed through data, so enterprises – especially smaller ones – and local communities can react faster as travel recovery accelerates across Asia Pacific,” he adds.