The election of Donald Trump as President of the United States has clouded the picture for the American hospitality and travel industry, says a report by hospitality industry tracking and analysis firm STR.

In a press statement, STR says that it has lowered its projections for growth in the industry for the remaining period of the current year as well as for the year 2025. It says that for 2024, projected gains in Average Daily Rate (ADR) and Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) were each downgraded, by 0.5 basis points to 1.5 pc and -0.6 basis points to 1.4 pc, respectively. Occupancy for the year was lowered 0.1 basis points to 62.9 pc.

STR says that for 2025, the occupancy growth projection was downgraded 0.4 ppts, and the forecast for ADR and RevPAR increases were lowered to 1.6 pc and 1.8 pc, respectively.

“The outlook for 2025 remains somewhat in flux, with positive sentiment potentially offset by the higher cost of living. Based on current economic conditions, higher-end hotels will continue to drive industry performance. The change in the presidential administration is anticipated to yield stronger economic conditions at first, which is not yet reflected in the data,” says Amanda Hite, President, STR.

Amanda Hite

“Looking ahead to next year, the economic drivers are supportive of growth in travel activity. Consumer spending and business investment are expected to expand, helping support additional gains in business and group travel demand. Growth in international visitation also represents a tailwind for 2025,” says Aran Ryan, Director of Industry Studies, Tourism Economics.

“The forecast was prepared pre-election and assumed economic conditions consistent with political status quo. There is the potential that the Trump administration will pursue looser fiscal policy and provide a temporary boost to the economy, before offsetting effects such as tariffs and immigration act to moderately slow growth,” Ryan adds.

“Annual GOP and EBITDA margins remain unchanged from the previous forecast, both expected to improve slightly year over year. For 2025, higher growth is projected across both metrics due to lower labour costs, with inflation-adjusted GOP forecasted to inch closer to 2019 levels,” says Hite.

Aran Ryan

Meanwhile, the US hotel industry reported higher performance results from the previous month, according to October 2024 data provided by CoStar, a leading provider of online real estate marketplaces, information, and analytics in the property markets.

It says that while occupancy was 67.3 pc, a rise of 2.3 pc over the ame month in the last year, the ADR gained 1.8 pc to reach USD 164.86 and RevPAR rose 4.1 pc to USD 110.94.

Among the Top 25 Markets, New York City experienced the highest occupancy level of 91 pc, a rise of 4.6 pc from October 2023. Markets with the lowest occupancy for the month included St. Louis at 61.7 pc and Minneapolis at 63.1 pc.