United States aviation capacity to rise to 270 million in Q1 2025: OAG

Domestic demand to drive growth as international capacity drops
2025-01-12
/
/ New Delhi
SFO Airport expects 6.3 million travellers this festive season
United States aviation capacity to rise to 270 million in Q1 2025: OAG

The first quarter of the new year will see divergence of trends for airlines and airports (Photo: India Outbound)

Aviation seat capacity in the United States in the first quarter of 2025 is set to register a modest growth of 1.1 pc to rise to 270 million, says aviation industry tracking and analysis company OAG. It says that domestic demand is projected to rise by 1.3 pc, while international seat capacity will decline by 1.8 pc.
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The first quarter of 2025 presents a mixed picture for the aviation market in the United States as domestic demand is projected to rise while the international aviation capacity looks set to contract by 1.8 pc, says aviation industry tracking firm OAG.

In a press statement, OAG says that the total capacity in the US market this quarter will increase by just 1.1 pc to 270 million. This is comprised of a domestic market of 249 million seeing growth year on year of 1.3 pc and international capacity of 21 million slipping back by 1.8 pc over the previous year. With the domestic market more than 10 times larger, this segment determines the market’s general direction.

OAG says that across the major US based airlines there are a range of perspectives on the levels of production. The big three legacy scheduled airlines range from a near 1 pc increase for American Airlines, the largest carrier, and 5.8 pc for United Airlines, the second-biggest airline in the country, which is seeking to hike its domestic capacity by 6 pc in the quarter.

OAG says that JetBlue’s network reorganisation programme appears to result in some 4 pc fewer seats in the first quarter while not surprisingly Spirit Airlines, the troubled low-cost carrier, is set for a 15 pc reduction in capacity as it works its way through the initial stages of Chapter 11 filings for bankruptcy.

In sharp contrast, according to OAG, bullish capacity growth from the ultra-low-cost carriers is reflected in Allegiant with 14 pc growth and Frontier at 10 pc, while Breeze is in that evolutionary growth phase. Whether such growth reflects expected demand, a commercial necessity to fly or a chase for revenues, will only be determined in April and beyond.

OAG says that in the domestic market there are big and bold moves by some carriers, perhaps forced by fleet deliveries in the last 12 months. In particular, Breeze has a 53 pc increase in planned capacity and Avelo is set to increase by 18 pc and Allegiant will raise capacity by 14 pc are also putting in some large increases across their operations.

Changes in a low-cost airline’s network from winter to summer seasons are fairly standard in all markets, but in the case of some US carriers the levels of churn are dramatic; Avelo Airlines for example is opening 10 new airport markets this quarter compared to last year, while at the same time dropping eleven markets from their programme. This may highlight an airline trying to find its way in a very competitive market.

International capacity has a similar picture to that of the domestic markets with the notable exception of Spirit who have cut over one-third of their international network.

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