Leading travel retail research agency m1nd-set says that global air travel will continue to grow in 2025, with Europe and the Middle East markets rising, but the sharpest growth is likely from Asia Pacific region.

The Geneva-based firm has unveiled its 2025 forecast report, with a comprehensive outlook on global air traffic trends and evolving shopper behaviour. The report provides strategic insights for travel retail stakeholders, covering top airports, nationalities, and key consumer trends that will shape the travel retail industry in the year ahead.

In a press statement, the company says that the two-part 2025 forecast provides an in-depth overview and comprehensive analysis of global and regional air traffic trends, with air traffic data provided through m1nd-set’s partnership with IATA. The air traffic analysis identifies trends across global regions, the top 25 airports, and the 25 leading nationalities contributing to international traffic.

According to the statement, the the 2025 forecast report draws on interviews with over 250,000 global consumers across all regions in the world and it underlines the key trends in consumer behaviour among international travellers, amidst an evolving travel retail landscape and an increased preference for experiential retail and digital touchpoints.

It says its analysis of global travelling consumer shopping behaviour examines trends and patterns across major categories from 2018 to the present, with projections through 2025 using m1nd-set’s predictive analytics.

The report focusses on key performance indicators (KPIs) impacting travel retail, including footfall and purchase drivers. It explores the evolution of impulse versus planned purchases, purchase destination preferences, pricing, shop attractiveness, gifting, and the role of experiential retail.

The statement adds that key trends identified in m1nd-set’s 2025 Annual Forecast Report for global air traffic in 2025 include the sustained growth in global passenger numbers. The report says that air passenger traffic has consistently grown since 2021, quadrupling over five years, and projects global passenger numbers will reach 4.22 billion in 2025, an increase of 8.3 pc on 2024 figures.

According to m1nd-set, Europe will remain the largest contributor to international traffic, with nearly 2 billion passengers in 2025. However, its share will continue to decline, dropping from nearly 60 pc in 2021 to 46.9 pc in 2025 due to rising competition from other regions. Asia Pacific shows the strongest growth, increasing from 6 pc in 2021 to 25.5 pc in 2025, driven by post-pandemic recovery, economic growth, and enhanced connectivity. The region is set to exceed 1 billion passengers in 2025.

`North America maintains steady traffic growth, projected at 442 million passengers in 2025, though its global share will slightly decline to 10.5 pc. The Middle East is also experiencing a declining share, which will drop from 8.3 pc in 2022 to 7.3 pc in 2025, with 310 million passengers forecasted.

Latin America and the Caribbean will surpass 250 million passengers in 2025 but, with Asia Pacific’s air traffic revival, it too will experience a declining global share, falling from 9.4 pc in 2021 to just over 6 pc in 2025. Africa will grow from 54 million passengers in 2021 to 152 million in 2025, but its share of global traffic decreases from 5.2 pc in 2021 to 3.6 pc in 2025, says the report.

According to m1nd-set its 2025 Forecast Report reveals diverse recovery trends for global airport rankings. Key European and Middle Eastern hubs, including London Heathrow and Dubai, maintain dominance for international air traffic, but Asia Pacific airports, such as Singapore Changi and Seoul Incheon, are rapidly climbing the ranks following the post-pandemic resurgence.

European hubs Paris Charles de Gaulle and Amsterdam Schiphol also maintain strong positions, ranking 5th and 6th respectively in 2025 for international air traffic. The report says that there would be a shift in dominance from mature markets like the United States and Europe to rapidly growing Asian markets, with countries such as China, India, and South Korea ascending the global rankings.

By 2025, China is projected to enter the top five markets for international passengers, reflecting Asia Pacific’s expanding influence.

In terms of  retail shopping while travelling is also evolving rapidly in the post-pandemic period, says the report.

Peter Mohn

“To attract travellers and encourage in-store purchases, it is essential to meticulously curate the travel retail environment. This involves reimagining every stage of the shopper’s journey with a focus on delivering a best-in-class customer experience. From the airport or cruise ship setting, particularly in areas near the stores, to in-store design, merchandising displays, interactive touchscreens, retail activations, signage, packaging, and staff interactions, every element must be thoughtfully crafted. Every touchpoint of the journey must be designed to captivate, evoke emotion, and provide a truly immersive and memorable experience,” says ” says Peter Mohn, Owner and Chief Executive Officer, m1nd-set.

“The 2025 Forecast Report equips travel retail stakeholders with actionable insights to navigate challenges, capitalize on emerging opportunities, and foster meaningful connections with travellers in a rapidly evolving market landscape,’’ he adds.