China and India have recently begun discussions on restarting direct air services between the two countries
After nearly five years of suspended air services, India and China are preparing to restart direct passenger flights, a move that could reshape connectivity between two of the world’s largest aviation markets.
In a press statement, OAG says that the suspension, triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic and a deadly border clash in 2020, has persisted amid ongoing diplomatic tensions and a series of border incidents that left over 20 Indian and at least four Chinese soldiers dead.
The consultancy notes that recent months, however, have seen a thaw in relations, marked by high-level meetings and renewed dialogue.
Meanwhile, OAG says that in January, India’s Ministry of External Affairs announced that both nations had agreed to negotiate a framework for resuming direct flights, following talks between Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi in Beijing.
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According to OAG, while cargo flights continued, passenger services remained halted, forcing nearly 572,000 travellers in 2024 to rely on indirect routes via hubs like Hong Kong and Bangkok, a figure still below the 1.2 million indirect passengers seen pre-pandemic.
OAG says that historically, the air service agreements between India and China have been among the most restrictive globally. Before the suspension, Chinese airlines dominated the market, operating nearly 80 pc of direct flights, in part due to India’s ‘five and 20’ rule, which limited Indian carriers’ access.
At its peak in 2019, there were about 2,588 scheduled flights a year between the two countries, averaging seven one-way flights a day, says OAG, adding that Delhi was the focal point for services from Shanghai and Guangzhou with China Southern and China Eastern being the two dominant airlines operating two daily flights between the countries.
OAG also reports that this imbalance is now under scrutiny. With Indian airlines like IndiGo and a revitalised Air India expanding their fleets, IndiGo is set to receive advanced A321XLR aircraft and Air India is acquiring additional Boeing jets, competition is expected to intensify.
According to the statement, both governments are keen to leverage this reopening for broader economic and strategic gains. For India, direct access to China is vital for its ambitions to develop world-class hub airports and support its booming aviation sector. For China, with access to the US market constrained by trade tensions, India represents a high-growth alternative.
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