Though global aviation capacity has bounced back strongly in 2022, growing 30 pc over 2021, it remains about 18 pc below the pre-pandemic level. However, some markets and some airlines have already crossed the 2019 highs.

A new report by global aviation consultancy firm OAG says that the global airline capacity has bounced back by over 30 pc compared to 2021 and by nearly 50 pc when compared to 2020. It is, however, still on a per annum basis around 18 pc below the 2019 level and despite the second half of the year reporting a stronger performance with around a 13-15 pc shortfall, catching up any further after the first quarter of the year was a challenge, says OAG.

It says that the growth has been uneven across the world, with. Few markets outperforming the others. Overall, there are three “hot spots” or regions that have grown beyond the 2019 levels of capacity. While Western/Central Africa is up 10 pc, Central Asia is up 7 pc and South America up 6 pc in 2022, compared to 2019.

OAG says that combinations of large low-cost growth, new airlines and legacy carrier network expansion have improved the performance in many of those country markets. Unfortunately for each of those “hot spots” there are some regions of the world still struggling, and just to add to their problems they all seem to have interdependencies on each other; North East and South East Asia are both linked by one outstanding issue, China and international access.

However, if China was to reopen at any point in 2023 for international services there is an issue of available fleet resources in many airlines that would need to be solved – and that’s before the issue of overflying some major pieces of land which will need addressing for Europe’s legacy airlines.

US leads Top 20 aviation markets in 2022, India closest to 2019

With over 1 billion scheduled seats in 2022, it is no surprise that the United States has topped the year as the best performing market globally. It has grown a staggering 56 pc from 2021 capacity, although it is still 7 pc below the 2019 high. OAG says that there are in total five country markets that are within touching distance of their 2019 capacity, the closest is India at -5.7 pc and the market certainly has room for further recovery with new aircraft orders being placed and a resurgent low-cost sector growing demand, says OAG. However, it cautions that several operational challenges remain around aircraft spare parts and resources.

The speed of recovery from the pandemic has been quite remarkable when comparing year-on-year capacity. Over half of the top 20 countries have seen a capacity recovery of more than 50 pc compared to 2021 and two markets, the United Kingdom and Canada, have seen over 100 pc increases. Against that backdrop, the operational challenges faced by the industry throughout the year are perhaps not as surprising as the press seemed to sensationalise – finding twice as many fully qualified staff at short notice would be a challenge for any industry, not just aviation.

OAG says that airline schedule planners are now clearly focussed on the first quarter of 2023, and optimistically have been adding four million more seats, or 0.3 pc increase.

3 of top airlines exceed 2019 levels

The four largest airlines in the world when measured by capacity are all based in the United States. American Airlines is now 18 pc larger than second-placed Delta Air Lines which in turn holds less than a 1 pc advantage over the world’s largest low-cost carrier Southwest Airlines. The OAG says that within the top 20 airlines, there are three carriers that are now operating more capacity than in 2019. All three are low-cost carriers, with Ryanair and IndiGo both up 12 pc, while Spirit Airlines is up 17 pc.

Incidentally, the faster recovery of low-cost carriers has led to a rise in the share of low-cost carriers in global capacity, which now stands at 32.7 pc, up from 30.1 pc in 2019, indicating the strength of the recovery.

OAG adds that 2022 was certainly an interesting year for the aviation industry with plenty of optimism around the recovery process and, in many cases, airlines reporting record third-quarter revenues. However,  there are many challenges to be faced in 2023, including increased operating costs, concerns around consumer confidence and the return of the corporate traveller. However, there is equally growing confidence in the travel recovery with airlines placing new aircraft orders, new routes being announced and great things happening in both the short-haul and long-haul markets