Global air travel set to recover 65 pc in Q3

Africa & the Middle East in top list to recover
2022-07-01
/
/ New Delhi
Aviation
Global air travel set to recover 65 pc in Q3

Rise in air fares has done relatively little to dampen demand in international air travel (IO Photos)

As travel and tourism slowly recovers with restrictions and curbs being eased by many countries, ForwardKeys says that Q3 is seeing a rise in global air travel, even when factors such as hike in airfares are in place.
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A new report by Forwardkeys, produced for the World Travel Market (WTM), says that in the third quarter of the year- July, August and September, global air travel is set to reach 65 pc of where it was before the pandemic. However, the revival has revealed to be quite patchy, for the report reveals that while some parts of the world are doing much better, others are far behind and also some types of travel, particularly beach holidays, are now much popular than urban city visits and sightseeing.

According to the report, Africa & the Middle East are on the course to recover most strongly with arrivals in Q3 expected to reach 83 pc of 2019 levels. The Americas are on the second with summer arrivals expected to reach 76 pc, followed by Europe with 71 pc, and Asia Pacific with just 35 pc.

The current preference for beach holidays is well illustrated by a comparison of the top ten beach and urban destinations in Europe, ranked by Q3 flight bookings compared to 2019. Antalya is at the top with a score of 81 pc, followed by Tirana with 36 pc and Mikonos 29 pc. All of these are showing extremely healthy demand, whereas, in the urban list, only Naples is ahead ( 5 pc). Besides Naples the three other leading urban destinations, Istanbul, Athens and Lisbon are all also gateways to beach resorts too.

A similar trend has been exhibited in the Americas, where Q3 bookings for air travel to the Caribbean, Central America and Mexico are 5 pc ahead of 2019 levels, whereas flight bookings to South America and to the US and Canada are, respectively, 25 pc and 31pc behind. The destinations which are set to perform most strongly are Costa Rica, 24 pc ahead, Jamaica, 17 pc ahead and the Dominican Republic, 13 pc ahead.

Though airfares in the world are higher currently due to several factors, most notably the Russian- Ukraine war, enthusiasm for travel didn’t fall. In fact, the hype to travel internationally again has been high that the rise in air fares has done relatively little to dampen demand.

This is evident from the fact that though the average fare from the US to Europe climbed by over 35 pc between January and May, nearly 60 pc above compared to the previous year, the demand for these tickets still peaked during March.

Helpfully for the travel industry and for many destinations, American travellers are planning to stay longer and spend more than they did in 2019 but not as much as they did during the pandemic, says ForwardKeys.

The average planned length of stay in Q3 is 12 days, up from 11 days in 2019. Last year, it was 16 days, but fewer people, with a more affluent profile, were travelling then. The proportion of people flying in premium cabin classes in Q3 is also set to rise, from 12 pc in 2019 to 15 pc this year.

A combination of factors has led to a promising outlook for summer travel to Africa and the Middle East. Several Middle Eastern airports acting as hubs for travel between Asia Pacific and Europe has led to the region benefiting from the revival of intercontinental travel, particularly driven by people returning to Asian countries to visit friends and relatives.

The closure of Russian airspace has also contributed to the uplift in hub traffic. Cairo, 23 pc ahead, has increased connectivity to European markets. Nigeria, 14 pc ahead, Ghana, 8 pc ahead, and Ivory Coast, 1 pc ahead, with large diasporas in Europe and the US, are seeing expats return to visit friends and family. Tanzania, 3 pc ahead, Cape Verde, flat and the Seychelles, just 2 pc behind, are successfully attracting long haul visitors from Europe.

In comparison, longer and stiffer Covid-19 travel restrictions, with some still remaining in force have resulted in much slower recovery from travel to and within the Asia Pacific region.

“With 2022 seeing travel restrictions lifted, connectivity re-established, and consumer confidence regained, demand for international travel is on the rise once more, marking a departure from the domestic travel trend that dominated in recent years. In Q3 this year, holidaymakers are relatively much keener to leave the pandemic behind with a relaxing break on the beach than they are to consume culture, cities, and sightseeing,” says Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys.

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